After two decades of agricultural declarations that promised transformation but delivered uneven progress, African leaders convened in Kampala, Uganda, to adopt a fundamentally different approach. The Kampala CAADP Declaration and its accompanying Strategy and Action Plan for 2026 to 2035 represent more than a continental commitment but rather a quantified, time-bound investment framework that aims to convert political ambition into actionable projects. For investors, development finance institutions, and policymakers, this provides a clear and predictable roadmap for capital investment and resource allocation.
The Kampala framework arrives at an inflection point. Currently, one in five people in Africa experiences food insecurity, whilst climate volatility has reduced agricultural productivity growth by roughly a third over recent years. Concurrently, global disruptions, stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic and international conflicts, have highlighted the structural risks associated with the continent’s reliance on imported food and agricultural inputs. Against this backdrop, the African Union has committed to mobilising USD 100 billion in combined public and private agrifood investment by 2035 while also increasing public expenditure to 10% of national budgets. Much of how this capital will be deployed and what impact it will have will be shaped in the next 24-36 months.
A structured framework for capital deployment
What distinguishes Kampala from its predecessors is its specificity. The declaration comprises six core commitments, 35 intervention areas and 22 measurable targets. These include increasing agrifood output by 45%, tripling intra-African agrifood trade, halving post-harvest losses, raising local processing to 35% of agrifood GDP, and reducing poverty by 50%. Each target comes with explicit timelines and binding obligations, particularly in relation to integration.
By quantifying objectives, establishing timelines, mandating domestic integration and creating accountability mechanisms, the declaration provides the structure necessary for systematic implementation. Something that previous frameworks sorely lacked. For instance, the Maputo Declaration of 2003 focused primarily on public budget allocations, whilst the Malabo Declaration of 2014 emphasised production targets without detailed implementation mechanisms. Kampala, by contrast, functions as forward guidance for African agrifood policy, clarifying where capital will be welcomed and de-risked.
Implementation risks and governance bottlenecks
The sheer scale of the framework’s ambition is formidable, especially considering the substantial implementation challenges. Previous CAADP iterations faced persistent obstacles around internal governance dynamics, institutional capacity and resource mobilisation. In fact, the 2024 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report noted that no African Union member state was on track to meet all Malabo Declaration targets by 2025, highlighting the gap between aspiration and execution.
Three specific risks merit attention. First, policy continuity remains fragile across many jurisdictions. Leadership changes frequently trigger wholesale policy reversals, creating uncertainty that discourages long-term investment. Countries that institutionalise CAADP commitments within legislative frameworks rather than executive decrees will demonstrate greater credibility to capital markets.
Second, resource mobilisation faces structural constraints. African governments confront competing priorities across health, education, infrastructure, and debt servicing. Increasing agricultural public expenditure to 10% of budgets whilst maintaining macroeconomic stability will require difficult trade-offs, and the ability to leverage public capital through blended finance structures may prove pivotal.
Third, technical and institutional capacity varies considerably across member states. Developing sophisticated national agriculture investment plans (NAIPs), implementing robust monitoring systems and maintaining transparent procurement processes demand expertise that not all countries possess. Development partners and technical assistance providers have a substantial role in capacity building, yet success ultimately depends on domestic ownership and political commitment.
The biennial review processes embedded in the Kampala Declaration should offer a critical safeguard against some of these implementation risks. Regular performance assessments, peer learning mechanisms and public reporting will create accountability pressures that previous frameworks lacked. Countries that embrace transparency and evidence-based policymaking will differentiate themselves to discerning investors.
Action agenda for the next eighteen months
For investors, agri-preneurs and asset managers, the immediate priority involves mapping Kampala targets to specific geographies and value chain segments. This requires analysing which countries are advancing their NAIPs most rapidly, assessing regulatory environments and identifying co-investment partners among development finance institutions. Portfolio construction should account for the ten-year implementation horizon whilst maintaining flexibility to adjust as national strategies crystallise.
For policymakers and development finance institutions, including UNIDO, Afreximbank, the African Development Bank, BADEA, Africa Finance Corporation, the Islamic Development Bank, the WTO and the International Trade Centre, the focus must centre on supporting countries to develop credible, investable plans with clear policy commitments. This includes technical assistance for project preparation, legal and regulatory reform, and the establishment of financial platforms that can aggregate smaller opportunities into scalable vehicles.
To transition from policy to practice, the AfCFTA Secretariat and regional bodies, supported by technical partners like TradeMark Africa (TMA) and AGRA, will lead the harmonisation of Kampala’s objectives into actionable regional programmes. This effort will be bolstered by strategic alignment, including with philanthropic partners such as the Mastercard, IKEA, Rockefeller, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundations, to ensure scalable impact. Engaging with these institutions early in the implementation cycle will offer strategic advantages for both capital providers and project developers.
Investment themes emerging from the framework
The 22 targets effectively create a heat map of investable themes. Post-harvest loss reduction alone represents a multi-billion-dollar opportunity across storage, transport, refrigeration and processing infrastructure. Africa currently loses an estimated 30–40% of production between farm and consumer, a figure the declaration aims to halve. Successfully bridging this gap would unlock billions in realisable revenue for investors.
Local processing presents another substantial theme. Raising processing to 35% of agrifood GDP will require investment across milling, refining, canning, dairy processing and other value-adding manufacturing verticals. This aligns with broader industrialisation objectives but will require substantial technology transfer, industrial automation, and skills development. Countries with stable regulatory environments and reliable power supplies will likely capture disproportionate investment in this segment and offer a compelling entry point for private equity.
Climate resilience and sustainable land management constitute a third major theme. This is particularly critical as African nations represent nine of the ten countries globally most impacted by climate-related challenges despite contributing the least to historical emissions. With member states already diverting up to 9% of national budgets to climate adaptation, the demand for climate-smart products and solutions such as agricultural inputs, irrigation systems, soil health technologies and weather-indexed insurance products will expand considerably. This segment may attract significant climate finance for projects and proposals that can demonstrate measurable adaptation or mitigation outcomes.
Nutritional foods and inclusive value chains represent another high-growth frontier for specialised capital. The declaration’s emphasis on food security and nutrition creates opportunities in fortified foods, school feeding programmes and smallholder aggregation programmes. Additionally, women and youth inclusion targets open pathways for impact investors.
The last realistic window for coherent action
The Kampala Declaration arrives at a decisive moment for the continent’s future. With Africa’s population projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, the scale of this demographic shift requires bold action. As climate impacts intensify and the need for meaningful youth livelihoods grows alongside rapid urbanisation, these priorities require transformational systemic change rather than incremental steps.
The capital mobilisation target of USD 100 billion represents both a significant commitment and a strong call to action. Investors who move decisively during the NAIP formation period will secure preferential positioning and establish critical partnerships in what may prove to be Africa’s defining agricultural transformation effort.
The Kampala Declaration represents a major opportunity for strategic capital to drive systemic change. And this opportunity for high-impact engagement will evolve rapidly as national strategies take shape and initial investments build foundational presence. For those seeking to be integral partners in the continent’s agricultural future, the next 18 to 24 months represent a critical window for active participation.
At Farrelly Mitchell, our food and agribusiness specialists provide strategic, technical and commercial expertise to help investors, governments and development finance institutions navigate complex agricultural transformation initiatives. Our commercial experts provide feasibility studies, financial modelling and due diligence for agribusiness investors from all over the world. We combine local market insights with global best practices to help clients identify, structure and execute agrifood investments that deliver both financial returns and tangible impact.
Additionally, our development and impact team help national authorities and DFIs to translate commitments and policies into credible action plans. With proven experience across African markets and deep expertise in capacity building, market linkages, agricultural policy, and value chain development. Contact our experts today to discuss how we can support your organisation’s strategic priorities across African agrifood markets.
